How to track your betting results

What should you actually measure?

Most bettors track profit, which is the number that takes longest to say anything. Four things are worth measuring instead.

Closing line value. Converges far faster than profit and is what sportsbooks themselves use to identify sharp accounts.

Return with its interval. A 220-bet record showing 5.91% sounds decisive and is not: the interval runs -7.0% to 18.9%, spanning zero.

Money return against flat-bet return. One is what happened, the other is what would have happened staking level. The gap is the only direct read on whether your sizing is earning its keep.

How many slices you checked. Tag your bets and each tag is a hypothesis. With 10 tags there is a 40% chance one clears the ordinary bar by luck, so the bar has to rise with the count. Slicing until something looks good is a search, not a test. What a record can prove →