Guides
Every one of these is answered somewhere else on the internet. The difference here is that the numbers are worked, and the parts that are usually left out — how uncertain the answer is, and whether you could actually have placed the bet — are the parts these lead with.
Start here 5
What the words mean, and how a price becomes a probability.
- How to devig oddsHow do you find the true probability behind a sportsbook's price?
- What does +EV mean in bettingWhat makes a bet mathematically profitable?
- What is vig and holdHow much is the sportsbook charging you?
- How to read American oddsWhat do +150 and -200 actually mean?
- What it means for a number to be measuredHow can you tell a counted number from a guessed one?
Finding a bet 11
Where an edge comes from, and whether it is still there when you reach for it.
- What is arbitrage bettingHow do you bet both sides and still win?
- What is a middle betHow can two bets both win?
- How to hedge a betHow do you lock in a profit on a position you already hold?
- What is a low hold betHow do you pay less juice on every bet?
- What is a sharp sportsbookWhy do some books' prices count as evidence and others don't?
- How to line shopHow much is taking the best available price actually worth?
- How to stake an arbitrage in round numbersWhat does betting $490 instead of $493.98 actually cost you?
- How old is the price on your screenWhy does the line move between clicking and confirming?
- What is a totals middle worthHow do you price an over/under middle without guessing?
- How to choose an odds feedHow do I compare odds feeds before paying for one?
- What a clock you cannot trust does to a priceWhy does my odds feed timestamp disagree with my own clock?
Staking 5
How much to bet, and why correlated bets are one bet.
- How to use the Kelly criterionHow much of your bankroll should one bet be?
- What is bankroll managementHow do you size bets so a bad run doesn't end you?
- How many bets are you actually makingAre twelve simultaneous bets really twelve bets?
- Why your worst case is worse than it looksWhat does your open book lose if everything goes wrong at once?
- How much of your bankroll should be liveHow much money should be on the table at one time?
Bonuses 6
What a promotion is worth after everything it costs to unlock.
- How to convert a bonus bet to cashWhat is a free bet actually worth and how do you cash it?
- What is a deposit match worthIs a 100% deposit match actually free money?
- What is a no-sweat bet worthWhat odds should you take on a first-bet-refunded offer?
- What is a profit boost worthWhere should you spend a 50% profit boost?
- Which welcome offer to do firstWhat order should you claim sportsbook sign-up offers in?
- When do bonus bets expireWhen do bonus bets expire and what are they worth before then?
Parlays 2
The most popular bet in the market and the worst priced.
Keeping the account 3
What bet shape gives away, and what actually extends an account.
Proving it works 8
Whether your record can distinguish you from break-even yet.
- What is closing line valueWhy do sharp bettors care more about CLV than profit?
- How to track your betting resultsWhat should you actually measure?
- Why your best sport is probably noiseDoes your most profitable category mean anything?
- How to tell if your model actually worksHow do you know a betting model is not just fitted to the past?
- How to grade your own betsWhat are the rules for settling your own betting record?
- How a betting model improves itselfHow does a betting model get better over time?
- Why a losing method is demoted not deletedWhy does my model still use a method that keeps losing?
- Why a model should forget old dataWhy would a betting model throw away old data?