How it works
Welcome offers, after every cost
A bonus bet does not return its stake, so it is worth about half its face value if bet naively. Converting means hedging — and every guide says “convert on a longshot” without mentioning what that costs at the second book. On a 1,000 bonus:
| Free leg | Hedge at | Hedge stake | Guaranteed | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +100 | -110 | 524 | 476 | 47.6% |
| +200 | -230 | 1,394 | 606 | 60.6% |
| +400 | -450 | 3,273 | 727 | 72.7% |
| +1200 | -1400 | 11,200 | 800 | 80.0% |
The hedge column is the constraint the advice always omits.
Middles, counted rather than assumed
Results are not smoothly distributed. Football margins pile up on 3 and 7 because of how the sport scores, so a normal curve gets the shape wrong in exactly the place the whole bet lives. Same prices, one point apart:
| Window | Hits | Break-even | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 / 3.5 | 15.79% | 4.76% | +10.53% |
| 4.5 / 5.5 | 4.21% | 4.76% | -0.53% |
Computed from a 285-game sample whose shape is synthetic, shape stated — an illustration of the mechanism, not a claim about any league. No published margin table we could verify covers every margin with its sample size, so Bookbreaker counts the games you record rather than shipping a distribution, and refuses to give a counted answer below 200 games.
Which books you can use
27 venues, filtered to the ones you can actually hold: an arbitrage between two books you cannot both open is noise with a number attached. 12 in New Jersey, 2 in Florida. Table read 2026-08-17, and the site shows its own age because a jurisdiction table without a date asserts “true now” forever.
A dated starting point for your own check, not advice. The book's own site decides whether it will accept you.
What stays out of the product
It does not link sportsbook accounts. Trackers that sync automatically do it by holding your sportsbook credentials; Bookbreaker imports the CSV your book already exports and never asks for a login.
Nor does it do multi-accounting, identity or KYC workarounds, or device and location spoofing — see account longevity for where that line is drawn and why it is drawn in code rather than in a policy document.