Bookbreaker for bonus hunters
Every offer is worth less than its headline. How much less?
Every offer is worth less than its headline, and the gap is the whole game. A 1,000 bonus bet does not return its stake, so bet naively it is worth about half its face value.
What each shape is really worth
Converting a bonus bet means hedging it. Longer odds convert better, and the hedge column is what every guide omits:
| Free leg | Hedge at | Hedge stake | Guaranteed | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +100 | -110 | 524 | 476 | 47.6% |
| +200 | -230 | 1,394 | 606 | 60.6% |
| +400 | -450 | 3,273 | 727 | 72.7% |
| +1200 | -1400 | 11,200 | 800 | 80.0% |
A deposit match is different arithmetic again. Rollover is a price, not a condition: a matched bonus at 10x is worth exactly zero at a 5% hold, which is barely above a standard market and below the hold of the restricted markets many books allow for playthrough.
The money most people actually lose
Bonus bets expire. An expired one is worth nothing, and no tool tells you before it happens — so this one tracks what you hold, what it converts to, what is expiring, and how much face value has already lapsed unused. That last figure is the only one that already happened rather than being a forecast.