What is a push in betting
What happens when a bet lands exactly on the line, and what is half a point worth?
A push is a bet that neither wins nor loses: the result lands exactly on the line, and the book returns the stake. It only happens on whole-number lines. A total of 3 can land on 3; a total of 2.5 cannot.
That is why the half point matters. Take a match the model expects to finish with 1.6 and 1.2 goals for the two sides:
| Over 2.5 | 53.05% win, fair -113 |
|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 46.95% win, fair +113 |
| Over 3 | 30.81% win, 22.25% push, fair +152 |
| Under 3 | 46.95% win, 22.25% push, fair -152 |
Moving the line by half a point moves more than a fifth of the outcomes from "lose" or "win" to "money back", so the fair price moves a long way. That gap is what a hook is worth on this game, and it is why a whole-number line and a half-point line are different bets, not the same bet with a rounding difference.
Pushes in a record and a parlay
A push is not a win or a loss, so it leaves a win rate untouched; count it as stake returned. How a pushed parlay leg is settled is each book's own rule (often the leg is removed and the rest paid at the shorter price), so read it before building a parlay around a whole-number line. How to grade your own bets covers recording them.
The figures come from a Poisson model, which treats the two sides' scoring as independent. Try your own expected goals.