A match modelled at 1.6 and 1.2 expected goals:
| Home | 46.66% |
| Draw | 24.71% |
| Away | 28.63% |
| Over 2.5 | 53.05% |
| Push on a 3.0 line | 22.25% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 at 11.68% |
The 22.25% push is why books quote halves, and it is the row most totals calculators leave out entirely.
Poisson assumes the two sides score independently. They do not: a team two goals down attacks, a team ahead defends, and real scorelines carry more draws and more blowouts than this model predicts. Treat it as one model's opinion, not a fair price.
Where the number comes from
Everything above was computed by the same engine that prices bets, at the moment this page was built — not typed into a template. The build fails if a figure appears here and not in the engine's own output.