Dutching calculator

How do I split a stake across several outcomes?

300 spread across 3 outcomes so that every result pays the same:

PriceStakeReturns
+120131.83290.03
+24085.30290.03
+25082.87290.03

Every branch returns 290.03 on 300 staked — -9.97, or -3.32%. That is negative here, and it is supposed to be: the prices imply 103.44% of probability between them, and everything above a hundred is the book's margin. Dutching is the same solver as an arbitrage with the guarantee removed.

So it earns nothing on its own. It is a way of expressing a view you already hold — that the winner is somewhere inside this set — at a known cost, rather than a way of manufacturing an edge. A dutch across outcomes you have no opinion about is a slow donation at a rate you can compute in advance.

Where the number comes from

Everything above was computed by the same engine that prices bets, at the moment this page was built — not typed into a template. The build fails if a figure appears here and not in the engine's own output.

How a price is formed →  ·  What a record can prove →