Middle calculator
What does this middle need to hit to be worth it?
Identical prices, one point apart:
| Window | Hits | Break-even | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 / 3.5 | 15.79% | 4.76% | +10.53% |
| 4.5 / 5.5 | 4.21% | 4.76% | -0.53% |
Break-even is arithmetic on the two prices and depends on no distribution at all, which makes it the honest anchor. The hit rate comes from counting 285 recorded games — a synthetic, shape stated sample shown as an illustration of the mechanism, not a claim about any league.
Where the number comes from
Everything above was computed by the same engine that prices bets, at the moment this page was built — not typed into a template. The build fails if a figure appears here and not in the engine's own output.