No-sweat bet calculator
What odds should I use for a no-sweat first bet?
A no-sweat bet refunds the first bet if it loses. Its value is the refund multiplied by how often the refund actually arrives — and it arrives only in the branch where the qualifying bet loses. So the qualifying bet should be a longshot. That is the opposite of most instincts, and the opposite of the right play on a bet-and-get, where the bonus lands whatever happens.
Figures below assume a qualifying stake of 1000 and a bonus-bet conversion rate of 75%. The conversion rate is a prior, not a measurement.
| Qualifying price | Refund value | EV |
|---|---|---|
| -110 | 375.00 | 329.55 |
| +150 | 450.00 | 450.00 |
| +300 | 562.50 | 562.50 |
| +600 | 642.86 | 642.86 |
Short price to long price: 375.00 → 642.86, a ratio of 1.71×. The gap between refund value and EV at the short price is the margin paid to place the qualifying bet at all. Longer is not unboundedly better: the long rows here are priced fair, which is a prior. Real longshot markets carry the heaviest margin, so read the long end as a ceiling.
It is not hedgeable. The refund exists only in the branch where the bet loses, and a hedge pays only in the branch where it wins. Hedging buys away the outcome that produces the bonus, and pays a second margin to do it. Competitors print a single bonus value with the qualifying price held fixed. The price is the entire decision.
Where the number comes from
Everything above was computed by the same engine that prices bets, at the moment this page was built — not typed into a template. The build fails if a figure appears here and not in the engine's own output.